What are the odds Bitcoin hits your target price before a given date?
Enter any price and date — we pull live implied volatility from Deribit and calculate both the probability of touching that level at any point, and the probability of closing above it on the target date. more ▾
Deribit IV · Barrier Model
Parameters
Target BTC Price ($)
Target Date
IV Source
Implied Volatility (%)
Deribit IV (nearest expiry)
—
Risk-free rate (r):
%
Results
P(Touch)
—
prob. BTC hits target at any point before date
P(Expire Above)
—
prob. BTC is above target on the target date
BTC Spot
$—
Days to Target
—
IV Used
—
Probability Breakdown
P(Touch) — path probability—
P(Expire Above) — terminal probability—
Touch then fall back below—
Enter a target price and date to calculate.
Touch Probability Across Target Prices (at current IV & date)
Model Notes:How it works:P(Touch) is the probability BTC reaches your target price at any point before the target date — not just on that date.
P(Expire Above) is the lower probability that BTC is actually above the target on the target date itself.
The gap between the two represents paths where BTC touches the level but falls back below before expiry.
Implied volatility is pulled live from Deribit options for the nearest expiry to your target date.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Options Pricing Model · Live MSTR Price · 10 STRK → 1 MSTR @ $1,000
STRK is a convertible preferred share — hidden inside it is a call option on MSTR stock.
This tool values that embedded option using live MSTR pricing and market implied volatility, showing what the optionality is worth per share and how sensitive it is to price, time, and volatility. more ▾
Finnhub · Options Model
MSTR Price
LIVE
$
Strike: $1,000
Moneyness
—
—
Call Option Value
$—
per STRK share
Option % of STRK Price
—
embedded call premium
Intrinsic Value
$—
per STRK share
Time Value
$—
vol × time premium
Option Greeks
Implied Volatility (σ)
80%
20%Low Vol80% (base)High Vol200%
Horizon (Years)
5.0 yrs
1y5y (base)10y15y20y
Δ Delta
—
prob-weighted exposure
Γ Gamma
—
delta sensitivity to S
Θ Theta (daily)
—
time decay per day
Vega (per 1% σ)
—
value per 1% vol move
Rho (per 1% rate)
—
value sensitivity to risk-free rate
Risk-free rate (r):
%
Embedded Call Value vs MSTR Price
Total Value
Intrinsic
Time Value
Strike $1,000
MSTR Price Scenarios → Embedded Call Value
10 STRK = 1 MSTR. Option per STRK share = call value ÷ 10
MSTR Price
Call Value
Per STRK
Moneyness
Loading…
Conversion Economics
Conv. Ratio
10 STRK : 1 MSTR
Conv. Price
$1,000 / MSTR
MSTR for ITM
$1,000.00
MSTR needs to move
—
Conv. Value (10 STRK)
—
Conversion Premium
—
Vol Sensitivity (at current MSTR)
Model Notes:
The STRK embedded call is valued using a standard options pricing framework applied to 0.1 MSTR shares (10:1 conversion ratio) with a $1,000 strike.
MSTR functions as a leveraged BTC proxy — its volatility is structurally higher than spot BTC, reflecting the company's leveraged treasury strategy.
Because STRK is perpetual with no maturity date, the horizon input represents your assumed monetization window rather than a contractual expiry.
Outputs are illustrative and intended to help frame the optionality embedded in the security.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Strategy (MSTR) Treasury
CoinGecko · Public Filings
MSTR
$—
—
BTC Holdings
720,737 BTC
Avg Cost / BTC
$75,985
BTC Value
$—
Unrealized P&L
—
% of BTC Supply
3.43%
Capital Plan
42/42 ($84B)
Capital Stack (Senior → Junior)
Debt
Convertible Notes
STRF
10% Cumulative
STRC
Variable ~11.5%
STRK
8% Convertible
STRD
10% Non-cum.
MSTR
Common Equity
BTC Options Pulse
Four live signals from Deribit's options market — updated every 5 minutes
The options market is where professional traders and institutions hedge and speculate. These four signals read what that smart money is actually doing — not what anyone is saying.
📐 IV Skew Signal
Compares the implied volatility of out-of-the-money calls vs out-of-the-money puts. When calls are more expensive than puts, traders are paying a premium for upside — a bullish signal. When puts are pricier, the market is buying downside protection — bearish.
Call IV > Put IV → bullish skew · Put IV > Call IV → bearish skew
⚖️ Put/Call OI Ratio
Measures the total open interest (money committed) in put options vs call options. A low ratio means more capital is positioned for upside. A high ratio means more hedging or bearish bets are open.
Ratio < 0.7 → call dominant · 0.7–1.0 → balanced · Ratio > 1.0 → put dominant
📊 IV Regime
Compares the near-term implied volatility to the average across all expiries. When near-term IV spikes above the average, the market is pricing in an imminent move. When it's compressed below average, traders expect calm — which can precede a breakout.
Near IV spike → market expects imminent move · Near IV compressed → calm, potential breakout setup
🎯 Gamma Balance Index
Gamma is the rate at which options dealers must buy or sell Bitcoin to stay hedged as price moves. When call gamma dominates, dealers are forced to sell into rallies and buy dips — pinning price. When put gamma dominates, dealers amplify moves, making the market more volatile.
Call dominant → dealers stabilise price · Balanced → unstable, free to move · Put dominant → dealers amplify moves
All data sourced live from Deribit — the world's largest Bitcoin options exchange by open interest. Not financial advice. DYOR.
BTC PULSE INDEX™
A single score from 0–100 summarizing Bitcoin's market health right now
Think of it as a vital signs monitor for Bitcoin — it watches nine signals across momentum, the options market, and sentiment, weights them, and outputs one number. The higher the score, the more bullish signals are firing at once.
⚡ Momentum — 35% of score
24h vs 7-day avg
Is today's price action stronger than the recent trend? A spike above the weekly average is bullish.
Volume surge
Are more people trading than usual? Big price moves with low volume are less convincing.
Funding rate
In futures markets, are traders paying to be long (bullish) or short (bearish)? Positive funding = bullish lean.
📊 Options Market — 35% of score
IV skew (C/P)
Are call options (bullish bets) or put options (downside protection) more expensive? Pricier calls = bullish sentiment.
Put/Call OI ratio
How many open options positions are bearish vs bullish? A low ratio means more upside bets are open.
RV/IV compression
Is actual volatility lower than what options are pricing in? Compression can signal a coming breakout.
🧠 Sentiment — 30% of score
Fear & Greed
The classic crypto sentiment gauge — 0 is extreme fear, 100 is extreme greed. High greed = bullish mood.
Mempool fee pressure
High transaction fees mean high demand to use the Bitcoin network — a sign people are active and engaged.
Vol momentum
Is volatility rising or falling? Expanding volatility often precedes significant price moves in either direction.
75–100 SURGINGMultiple bullish signals firing together
60–74 PULSINGLeaning bullish, momentum building
40–59 NEUTRALMixed signals, market undecided
25–39 COOLINGBearish signals emerging
0–24 DORMANTBroad bearish or low-activity signal
The index refreshes every 30 seconds using live data from Deribit, Kraken, mempool.space, and alternative.me. Not financial advice. DYOR.
