What are the odds Bitcoin hits your target price before a given date?
Enter any price and date — we pull live implied volatility from Deribit and calculate both the probability of touching that level at any point, and the probability of closing above it on the target date. more ▾
Deribit IV · Barrier Model
Parameters
Target BTC Price ($)
Target Date
IV Source
Implied Volatility (%)
Deribit IV (nearest expiry)
—
Risk-free rate (r):
%
Results
P(Touch)
—
prob. BTC hits target at any point before date
P(Expire Above)
—
prob. BTC is above target on the target date
BTC Spot
$—
Days to Target
—
IV Used
—
Probability Breakdown
P(Touch) — path probability—
P(Expire Above) — terminal probability—
Touch then fall back below—
Enter a target price and date to calculate.
Touch Probability Across Target Prices (at current IV & date)
Model Notes:How it works:P(Touch) is the probability BTC reaches your target price at any point before the target date — not just on that date.
P(Expire Above) is the lower probability that BTC is actually above the target on the target date itself.
The gap between the two represents paths where BTC touches the level but falls back below before expiry.
Implied volatility is pulled live from Deribit options for the nearest expiry to your target date.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Options Pricing Model · Live MSTR Price · 10 STRK → 1 MSTR @ $1,000
STRK is a convertible preferred share — hidden inside it is a call option on MSTR stock.
This tool values that embedded option using live MSTR pricing and market implied volatility, showing what the optionality is worth per share and how sensitive it is to price, time, and volatility. more ▾
Finnhub · Options Model
MSTR Price
LIVE
$
Strike: $1,000
Moneyness
—
—
Call Option Value
$—
per STRK share
Option % of STRK Price
—
embedded call premium
Intrinsic Value
$—
per STRK share
Time Value
$—
vol × time premium
Option Greeks
Implied Volatility (σ)
80%
20%Low Vol80% (base)High Vol200%
Horizon (Years)
5.0 yrs
1y5y (base)10y15y20y
Δ Delta
—
prob-weighted exposure
Γ Gamma
—
delta sensitivity to S
Θ Theta (daily)
—
time decay per day
Vega (per 1% σ)
—
value per 1% vol move
Rho (per 1% rate)
—
value sensitivity to risk-free rate
Risk-free rate (r):
%
Embedded Call Value vs MSTR Price
Total Value
Intrinsic
Time Value
Strike $1,000
MSTR Price Scenarios → Embedded Call Value
10 STRK = 1 MSTR. Option per STRK share = call value ÷ 10
MSTR Price
Call Value
Per STRK
Moneyness
Loading…
Conversion Economics
Conv. Ratio
10 STRK : 1 MSTR
Conv. Price
$1,000 / MSTR
MSTR for ITM
$1,000.00
MSTR needs to move
—
Conv. Value (10 STRK)
—
Conversion Premium
—
Vol Sensitivity (at current MSTR)
Model Notes:
The STRK embedded call is valued using a standard options pricing framework applied to 0.1 MSTR shares (10:1 conversion ratio) with a $1,000 strike.
MSTR functions as a leveraged BTC proxy — its volatility is structurally higher than spot BTC, reflecting the company's leveraged treasury strategy.
Because STRK is perpetual with no maturity date, the horizon input represents your assumed monetization window rather than a contractual expiry.
Outputs are illustrative and intended to help frame the optionality embedded in the security.
Not financial advice. DYOR.
